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Author Topic: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
hfblognews
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hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: October 22, 2015, 15:10
Quote

Date : 22nd October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 22nd October 2015.

Image

EURUSD, 240 min

The sideways move over the last three days has been a reflection of both market participants’ carefulness ahead of ECB meeting and the fact that the pair is trading between support and resistance levels. ECB leaders gather today in Malta and Mario Draghi will be speaking on European economy. We do not expect the ECB to announce new QE measures today. This expectation is in line with the analyst consensus. Inflation is below ECB target but Draghi has expressed satisfaction on increased lending in the Euro area. This suggests no need for new QE measures.

At the time of writing EURUSD is trading at a support created by previous pivot highs and 50% Fibonacci retracement. The 100 period SMA coincides with this support while the Stochastics Oscillator points to the pair being oversold in both the 4h and daily time frame. The last week’s bearish pin bar together with the upper weekly Bollinger Bands has been limiting the moves to the upside. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1295 and 1.1388. The support can be found at 1.1260, a 61.8% Fibonacci level which coincides with 50 day SMA. Look for a move higher towards the 1.1388 resistance if no new QE promises or measures are introduced.

MACRO EVENTS & FX NEWS

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Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Rates Decision: ECB seen on hold, focus on presser. We expect the central bank to stay on hold today, as does the overwhelming majority of analysts in the latest Bloomberg survey, with only one expecting further easing measures already this week. This does not mean that an extension or expansion of the QE program will be off the table however and Draghi’s comments at the press conference will likely strike a fine balance between justifying the current wait and see stance and assuring markets that the ECB is ready and willing to act again if necessary. Comments suggest that the low inflation environment is once again becoming a concern and December, when the updated set of economic projections is due, will become a major focal point for a decision on additional steps.

[B]• US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of October 17 is out today and should reveal an increase to 264k (median 265k) from 255k last week. We expect the average for October to be 270k from 269k in September. This supports our call for a 190k employment headline which would follow a 142k increase in September.

• US Existing Home Sales: September existing home sales data today should reveal a 1.7% increase to a 5.400 mln (median 5.350 mln) headline following a 5.310 mln August figure and 5.580 mln in July which set a high back to 2007. Other housing measures are coming in mixed for the month with the NAHB holding steady at 61 in September, starts rising to 1.206 mln but permits slowing to 1.103 mln.

FX News Today

French business confidence mixed, with the overall headline number unexpectedly rising to 101 from 100, but manufacturing confidence falling to 103 from 104 and the production outlook indicator slumping to 2 in October, while the September reading was revised down to 5 from 7 reported initially. The own company production outlook held up better, with the reading declining only slightly to 13 from 14 in the previous month, highlighting that concerns about global developments and the slowdown in emerging markets rather than actual weakness at company level are the main factors.

Bank of Canada Constructive on Growth as Forces Awaken. The Bank of Canada maintained the 0.50% setting for the overnight rate target, matching widespread expectations. While the growth projections for 2016 and 2017 were trimmed, the outlook remains constructive as the projected recovery in Canada’s economy takes hold. The return to full capacity was moved ahead to mid-2017 but Governor Poloz explained that the shift was within the range anticipated in July. The bank is comfortable with the current state of policy and the economy, content to remain on the sidelines as the forces unleashed by 50 basis points in rate cuts in the first half of this year continue to ease the adjustment to lower oil and commodity prices.

BoC Poloz praised the constructive evolution of the economy, answering a question on just how high the debt to income ratio can go. He noted that Canada does not have much experience with ratios this high, but that other countries run higher ratios (not that he’s saying higher ratios are ok, he added). But he is pleased the Bank identified the right forces in the economy when things were uncertain in January. Those forces continue to growth, he noted, and the constructive evolution gets the economy back to better growth. On the CAD, he said the currency has been moving roughly in-line with the terms of trade (ToT), which it has done historically. He noted that “roughly” comes with lots of advisement, as the zone around ToT movements is not trivial. Further solidifying his status as one of the most entertaining of the current crop of central bankers, he likened these moves to walking a dog with a stretchy leash — you get footprints (from the dog) that are not straight like a railroad track. His Q&A has ended.”

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

hfblognews
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Posts: 440
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hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: October 27, 2015, 15:06
Quote

Date : 27th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 27th October 2015.

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EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD failed to hold above its weekly uptrend line on a clean break below the 1.11 resistance. Now that the 6 month uptrend-line has been lost, we need to see if the 1.0990 low, as seen last week, will be retested before price makes an attempt towards 1.11 and possible 1.1170 in a return move. Momentum analysis remains towards the downside, although, I would expect to see some short term buying interest if the Stochastic can create a bull cross near the Stch.Os. 20 line. My multi-day conclusion on EURUSD price action is for a retest of Friday’s low (1.0996) before a return move towards 1.11 –1.1170.

MACRO EVENTS & FX NEWS

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Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. Gross Domestic Product: U.K. GDP numbers for Q3, with the quarterly growth rate expected to slow to 0.6% (med same) from 0.7%.

• USD Durable Goods Orders: September durable goods data is out today and should reveal a 0.8% (median -1.0%) decline for orders on the month with shipments unchanged and inventories growing by 0.1%. This compares to respective August figures of -2.3% for orders, -0.2% for shipments and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with analyst forecast would leave the I/S ratio for the month at 1.66 from 1.65 in both August and July.

• USD Consumer Confidence: October Consumer Confidence is out today and should reveal a 104.0 (median 102.8) headline, up from 103.0 in September and 101.3 in August. Other confidence measures have improved in October with Michigan Sentiment rising to 92.1 from 87.2 and the IBD/TIPP Poll rising to 47.3 from 42.0.

FX News Today

Greek bailout payment delayed, Greece is once again behind in the implementation of the agreed reforms and so far only 14 of the 48 “milestones” have been implemented. A delay of the reform plan and the payout likely also means a delay in the reform of the banking and finance system, including the recapitalization of banks.

Commodities were on the defensive, but the CAD was range bound near 1.3160 since the open. The lack of price action came as oil prices were steady near $43.5 – $44.00 and as the risk backdrop remains quiet.

USDJPY given back some gains, the pair has gained considerable ground since last week, as the dovish ECB and the aggressive PBoC combined to rally the dollar broadly. With the China rate cut having many market players up the BoJ’s ante to add to QE this week, USD-JPY gains may well hold.

Gold been relatively steady,

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

hfblognews
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Posts: 440
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hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: October 28, 2015, 11:25
Quote

Date : 28th October 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 28th October 2015.

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The AUD is broadly weaker against the majors in the wake of disappointing CPI data.
The CAD is higher even though the BoC’s Lane did not offer anything new on policy or the economy, as expected.
The USD, EUR and GBP are mostly unchanged ahead of today’s start of the FOMC meeting.

Image

AUDUSD, Daily

Price looks to retest .7160 before continuation of its downtrend for a 0.7162 target in the immediate short term. Price has broken down through recent lows at .7200. Targets further out could be near 0.7100 and 0.7020. However attempts to form a higher low near 0.7260 could signal a potential recovery towards the .7400′s.

FX Pair : AUDUSD
Supports: 0.7063
Resistances: 0.7260

Image

USDCAD, Daily

Stochastic Oscillator analysis is starting to turn bearish. The medium term risk of a deeper retracement of the May to September 1.1922-1.3454 advance to a minimum of 1.2658-88 and possibly 1.2507-61 is possible; provided we get a solid break below the recent upward trend line. The longer-term trend does remain up. However, for the short term daily trader, I would expect any downward movement to stop near the 1.3180 – 1.3045 levels.

Main Macro Events Today

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• USD Goods Trade Balance: The trade deficit has narrowed sharply since recent-highs early in 2012, and hovered close to levels seen in 2009 before the recent string of widening deficits that peaked in April. The September trade deficit is expected to contract 2.7% to -$47.0 bln after expanding 15.6% to -$48.3 bln in August. Exports in September are expected to decline 0.2% while imports show a 0.7% decrease on the month. The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to -$109.7 bln in Q2 from the -$118.3 bln deficit in Q1. Its expected for the deficit to be -$102 bln in Q3.

• USD FOMC Statement: Few expect any move from the Fed this year, let alone in the off-month of October.

• USD Consumer Confidence: The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s (NZIER) Shadow Board is sending the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) ahead of its Official Cash Rate (OCR) review today . The Board, comprised of nine economists and business leaders, is calling for RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler to leave the OCR at 2.75%. Wheeler has cut the OCR by 25 basis points on three occasions this year, indicating in his September Monetary Policy Statement, “Some further easing in the OCR seems likely”. NZIER senior economist Christina Leung recognizes that while inflation is very subdued at 0.4%, the economy will receive a boost.

FX News Today

The AUD provided the main action in overnight trade, the AUDUSD fell around 80 pips in making a three-week low at 0.7111, taking out its 50-day moving average at 0.7138 on route.

German GfK consumer confidence declines, confirming the downtrend in recent months. The low interest rate environment is making savings increasingly unattractive. At the same time, income expectations may have remained steady over the month, but have come down markedly since the summer and with business cycle expectations now in negative territory consumers are clearly starting to get concerned about the outlook.

German import price inflation weaker than expected, this continues to be driven by lower oil prices and the annual rate excluding oil related products remains in positive territory. Lower than expected import price inflation will gradual feed through to headline CPI numbers and therefore add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB, with the updated set of staff projections in December likely to bring another adjustment in inflation projections and delivering Draghi the justification for additional easing.

Australia Core CPI was below projections, putting perhaps some pressure on the RBA to ease again. CPI increased 0.5% in Q3. Australia CPI grew at a 1.5% y/y rate, matching the 1.5% y/y rate in Q2. CPI grew at a 1.3% y/y clip in Q1. Total CPI has run below 2.0% since Q4 of 2014, which was a 1.7% rate. The trimmed mean CPI slowed to a 2.1% y/y pace from a 2.2% y/y pace in Q2 and a 2.3% rate in Q1. The weighted median CPI expanded at a 2.2% y/y rate in Q3 after the 2.4% y/y clip in Q2 and the 2.5% clip in Q1.

Japan retail sales fell 0.2% y/y in Sep, September retail sales fell 0.2% y/y after rising 0.8% y/y in August. On the month sales edged up 0.7% versus unchanged previously. Large retailer sales slowed slightly to a 1.7% y/y pace from August’s 1.8%. (28-Oct). Household spending, or PCE rebounded 2.9% y/y in August after falling 0.2% y/y in July, and versus -2.0% y/y in June. (Aug 28). Consumer Confidence (SA) fell to 40.3 in July from 41.7 in June and 41.4 in May. (Aug 10).

Bank of Japan to Expand Stimulus, Slowing inflation growth alongside and a mixed domestic growth backdrop provide the Bank of Japan with the backing to expand already ample policy accommodation. The rate cut by China’s central bank and dovish guidance from the European Central Bank have stacked the deck in favor of further easing measures from the Bank of Japan, as we expect them to pursue a more is better approach to policy.

FOMC likely to hold firm with minimal changes to outlook[B/], The FOMC meets today and tomorrow and there is virtually no chance for any changes in policy. But the policy statement will be scrutinized for any indications that December will be the start of the tightening process. It’s still the case that only the employment mandate is being met, while inflation is still lagging. But weakness in recent real sector data, including today’s September durables report, along with renewed erosion in commodity prices, and the firmer dollar, argue against accelerating growth and don’t suggest inflationary pressures will be on the rise anytime soon. Look for the Fed to modify its language, perhaps shifting its characterization on the economy from moderate to modest. It’s likely to downshift slightly its view on the labor market after say it’s “continued to improve” in the September statement. On inflation the Fed can reiterate it’s running below forecast, while market based measures have moved lower too. These factors put the FOMC in a difficult spot credibility-wise, especially those policymakers who are anxious to tighten now, as data are leaning to the contrary. Policymakers can’t be encouraged by the Q slowdown abroad either, and the more accommodative postures from the ECB, PBoC, and probably the BoJ, keep the Fed in a bind too.

[B]Gold been relatively steady,

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

hfblognews
Pro
Posts: 440
Permalink
hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: November 2, 2015, 13:53
Quote

Date : 2nd November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 2nd November 2015.

Image

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: There are several crucial economic reports this week, including nonfarm payrolls, vehicle sales, ISMs, and trade. The October employment report due out on Friday will be the week’s main event. The unemployment rate is forecast dipping to 5.0% from 5.1% previously, another multi-decade low. Also of importance is October ISM manufacturing figures on Monday and the services data on Wednesday. The manufacturing index is estimated edging up to 50.5 from 50.2 in September, though that’s just barely in expansionary territory. The non-manufacturing index is expected to rise to 57.0 from 56.9 as solid growth is seen accelerating a bit. Vehicle sales on Tuesday are expected to inch lower, however, after strong sales through the summer. Trade figures for September on Wednesday should show sharp narrowing in the deficit to a -$41.5 bln gap, from -$48.3 bln in August, given the drop in the goods deficit posted last week. Q3 productivity on Thursday is seen at unchanged for the preliminary report, from the 3.3% Q2 pace. Unit labor costs should rebound to a 2.5% rate in Q3, versus Q2′s -1.4%. Other data include October ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, construction spending for September also on Monday, September factory orders on Tuesday, and September consumer credit to be released on Friday.

• Canada: Key reports this week from Canada, with September trade and October employment on the schedule. The September trade balance on Wednesday is expected to narrow to -C$1.9 bln in from the -C$2.5 bln shortfall in August. Employment on Friday is expected to improve 10.0k in October after the 12.1k gain in September. The unemployment rate is seen at 7.1% in October, matching the 7.1% rate seen in September. The Ivey PMI on Thursday is projected to improve to 55.0 in October from the seasonally adjusted 53.7 in September. Building permits on Friday are anticipated to grow 1.0% in September after the 3.7% drop in August. The RBC manufacturing PMI for October is due Monday. Results in line with analyst estimates, especially on trade and employment, would be supportive of the Bank of Canada’s constructive view on the growth and inflation outlook as detailed in the October Monetary Policy Report.

• Japan: The October Markit/JMMA PMI on Monday is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2. Auto sales are also on tap. The markets are closed Tuesday for the Culture Day holiday. The calendar does not pick up again until late in the week with the BoJ minutes to the October 6, 7 meeting on Thursday. Preliminary September leading and coincident indices on Friday should show the former down 1.3% m/m from the prior -1.5% reading, while the latter is expected to come in at -0.7% m/m from -0.9% in August. In addition, eyes will be peeled for news on a rumored Japanese government special stimulus budget, which made the rounds last Friday following the BoJ’s inaction on the QE front.

• China: The Caixin/Markit series released today improved slightly to 48.3 from 47.2. October services PMI out on Wednesday is likely to improve to 50.7 from 50.5.

• Australia: The calendar for Australia features the RBA on Tuesday, which is expected to maintain the current 2.00% policy setting, although the slowing in core CPI during Q3 revealed last week opened the door to a possible rate cut. As for economic data, the trade deficit on Wednesday is expected to narrow to -A$3.0 bln in September from -A$3.1 bln in August. Retail sales on Wednesday are seen rising 0.3% in September after the 0.4% gain in August. Building approvals on Monday expanded 2.2% in September after the 6.9% drop in August. The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy due out on Friday will update the bank’s growth and inflation projections.

• New Zealand: The calendar features the Q3 employment report on Wednesday. It’s expected for HLFS employment to rise 0.5% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% gain in Q2. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 6.0% in Q3 from 5.9% in Q2.

• Europe: This week’s reports are unlikely to change the macro outlook fundamentally for the Eurozone . The services index is out on Wednesday. Economic activity continues to expand, and on the whole, confidence readings have surprised on the upside in October, which shows the recovery remains on track. German manufacturing orders on Thursday are also expected to have rebounded in September, after falling sharply in August. German industrial production on tab for Friday is seen up 0.4% m/m , after falling 1.2% m/m in August — the September drop in orders likely will prevent a more pronounced rebound. Eurozone retail sales are also due out on Thursday.

Image

FX News Today

The GBP is slightly higher, against the EUR and USD after a much stronger than expected U.K. Manufacturing PMI reading. The unexpected jump in the manufacturing PMI, which has lowered the chances that the BoE will remove its implicit tightening bias. Gains against EUR, JPY and USD are modest however.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI, All Eurozone PMI readings apart from Greece are above the 50 point no change mark and even in Greece, confidence is improving further. Still, while the numbers signal a slight uptick in manufacturing output at the start of the last quarter, growth in the manufacturing sector is hardly buoyant and the sector is feeling the strain from the slowdown in emerging market economies, most notably China.

Eurozone stock markets are higher, the FTSE 100 is underperforming and posting slight losses, despite much better than expected PMI readings.

Worries over China’s growth, the official manufacturing PMI held steady at 49.8 in October, disappointing expectations for a bounce back to the 50.0 expansion-contraction line. It’s a third straight sub-50 reading. The non-manufacturing index slipped to to 53.1 from 53.4, still reflecting expansion but is the slowest pace since December 2008.

Greek banks need EUR 14.4 bln recapitalization, the ECB said in its Asset Quality Review, published Saturday, that Greek banks need at least EUR 4.4 bln from shareholders and bondholders to meet the shortfall identified under the current baseline macroeconomic assumptions.

Turkish lira soars, with stocks on Erdogan election success. The currency jumped the most since 2008 according to Bloomberg calculations after Erdogan’s AK Party won the second election this year. This ends months of political deadlock and gave a boost to stocks, as well as bonds, with 10-year yields dropping to the lowest level in three months.

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP U.K. manufacturing PMI: Jumped to 55.5 in October from 51.8 in September. A much stronger than expected reading and in fact the highest since June last year. The new orders number jumped to 56.9 from 52.9 in the previous month and is at the highest level since July 2014. GBP is slightly higher against EUR and USD and the Gilt contract has extended losses on the strong number that will back the arguments to maintain the BoE’s tightening bias.

• EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI: EMU Oct manufacturing PMI revised up to 52.3 from 52.0 reported initially and versus 52.0 in the previous month. National readings had been mixed, but with Spanish and French numbers slightly lower than expected, while the Italian reading surged higher and the German PMI was revised up markedly with the final release.

• USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: The manufacturing index is estimated edging up to 50.5 from 50.2 in September, though that’s just barely in expansionary territory.

• CAD RBC Manufacturing PMI: If the results are in line with consensuses, especially on trade and employment, this would be supportive of the Bank of Canada’s constructive view on the growth and inflation outlook as detailed in the October Monetary Policy Report.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

hfblognews
Pro
Posts: 440
Permalink
hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: November 3, 2015, 12:57
Quote

Date : 3rd November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 3rd November 2015.

Image

• The USD within the last 5 days’ of trading is lower across the board, in the wake of the latest US economic data that could be viewed by some market analysts that the Fed will continue to hold off again on any move on rates. However, the latest data does contradict the FOMC statement that hinted at a potential rate hike as early as December. For the time being, the market expectation looks to remain a mixed bag. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October inched down to 50.1 from 50.2 in the preceding month, the ISM headline missed the mark, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP for Q4 fell to 1.9% from 2.5%, last forecast on Friday. The USD market will now focus on the U.S. Non-farm Payroll report due out on Friday.

• The AUD is attempting to break a recent downtrend, as the RBA held rates steady at 2.00%, matching expectations. The central bank also noted that “growth in output had continued at around the average pace of recent years” and that while global trade was “subdued” it had “picked up recently,” although China was still seen as a main risk.

• The JPY has weakened against most of the majors, news that the Japanese government will put forward a supplementary budget of at least JPY 3 tln, has weighed on the yen. Given the weakened state of the Japanese economy further QE moves are expected from the Bank at some point. For now, USDJPY remains as a buy on the pullbacks.

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AUDUSD, Daily

Technically, the recent bullish momentum on the AUDUSD pair should continue since stochastic analysis, as well as moving average indicators, point to a potential close above the downward slopping trend line. Should we see a solid price close above the downward trend line, I would expect to see sellers emerging around the 0.7260-0.7290 areas before the continuation of its downtrend for a 0.7062 target.

FX PAIR: AUDUSD
SUPPORTS: 0.7062
RESISTANCES: 0.7260

Image

USDJPY, Daily

The short-term trend is up as price is trading above the downward trend line (Aug – Oct), and price is above its 1 year moving average. Upside potential remains for a 121.80 target, on a break of 121.50, but losing 120.25 will point back towards 119.60.

FX PAIR: AUDJPY
SUPPORTS: 120.25/119.60
RESISTANCES: 121.50

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS

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FX News Today

The RBA left rates unchanged, which pushed the AUD up across the board, but that didn’t deter stock markets, which focused on the fact that the RBA still kept the door open for further easing.

The U.S. ISM slipped to a 50.1 low, the October ISM is at a new two year low of 50.1, with a drop in the employment gauge to a 47.6 six year low that reinforced the pattern of declining producer sentiment.

The U.S. construction spending report beat estimates, with a 0.6% September rise after boosts in the July and August levels, though the surprise included big boosts in the home improvement residual that doesn’t enter GDP calculations, and the remaining construction data signaled downside risk for the next Q3 GDP revision.

Canada RBC manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0, in October from 48.6 in September. The decline puts the index further below the previous multi-year low of 48.7 seen in February, leaving the weakest reading in this indicator’s short history going back to late 2010.

U.K. manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.5, in October from 51.8 in September. This was a much stronger than expected reading and in fact the highest since June last year.

Gold slipped to nearly one-month lows, now trading around $1,1137/ounce, after touching $1,132,66 overnight. The market continues to fret over last week’s FOMC statement, where fears of a December rate hike have weighed heavily on gold prices.

Crude oil prices declined from two week highs, following poor manufacturing PMI readings out of China, which suggest ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity in the world’s second largest oil consuming countries.

Main Macro Events Today

• AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision: RBA held rates steady at 2.00%, matching expectations. The statement was similar to last month, lacking clear guidance and sticking to a cautiously dovish tone that justifies prevailing policy settings while reminding that they have room to cut further if needed. They also maintained the shift to less-negative language about the Australian dollar (first seen in August) remarking that the currency was “adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices” versus the previous guidance that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices.”

• GBP PMI Construction: The forecast calls for a 58.8 reading down from the last 59.9 number.

• ECB Presidents Draghi’s Speech: Eurozone markets will look for comments from ECB’s Draghi for a clarification of the policy stance after the president seemed to dampen easing hopes in comments from last weekend.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

hfblognews
Pro
Posts: 440
Permalink
hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: November 5, 2015, 12:26
Quote

Date : 5th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 5th November 2015.

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EURGBP UPDATE

I wrote in yesterday’s analysis on EURGBP: At the time of writing the pair is trading at the supporting end of the wedge. This market is still in a sell the rallies mode with the nearest resistance levels at 0.7093 and 0.7105. The nearest 240 min support is at 0.7060 while the next daily support can be found at 0.7027.

Those that have been to my webinars knew exactly how to get into a short trade and had a low risk trade opportunity as EURGBP hit the 0.7093 resistance identified in the report. The pair hit the first support yesterday and after some consolidation has now resumed the downward momentum. Those that used the position management technique they have learned in the webinars have now a profitable and risk free trade. You are most welcome to join me to the webinars and learn how to find and trade these opportunities. Register now. It’s free.

Today is a so called super Thursday, a day when Bank of England publishes not only the interest rates decision but also the quarterly inflation report. No changes are anticipated from the BoE. As Governor Carney has pointed out on at least two occasions since mid-summer, the possibility of a rate hike will be in “sharper relief” at the end of the year, so the implicit tightening bias remains in place. Still, the minutes will be of considerable interest, along with the Quarterly Inflation Report, which will bring new projections on inflation and growth. We expect the minutes to reveal a 8-1 vote to keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the lone hawk McCafferty maintaining his dissent for a quarter point hike for a fourth straight month.

The Inflation Report should reveal downward nudges to both inflation and growth forecasts in the nearer-term part of the forecast horizon following disappointing prelim Q3 GDP growth and an unexpected return to negative inflation readings in September.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS

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FX News Today

No changes are anticipated from the BoE. As Governor Carney has pointed out on at least two occasions since mid-summer, the possibility of a rate hike will be in “sharper relief” at the end of the year, so the implicit tightening bias remains in place. Still, the minutes will be of considerable interest, along with the Quarterly Inflation Report, which will bring new projections on inflation and growth. We expect the minutes to reveal a 8-1 vote to keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.5%, with the lone hawk McCafferty maintaining his dissent for a quarter point hike for a fourth straight month. The Inflation Report should reveal downward nudges to both inflation and growth forecasts in the nearer-term part of the forecast horizon following disappointing prelim Q3 GDP growth and an unexpected return to negative inflation readings in September.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow was revised up to 2.3% for Q4 compared to 1.9% previously following the surge on ISM Services to 59.1 in October: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3 percent on November 4, up from 1.9 percent on November 2. Following this morning’s Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, the forecast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent while the forecast for real fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent to 4.3 percent.” Blue Chip median estimates have settled near 2.7% and this update closed the gap somewhat.

Implied Fed funds futures are suggesting about a 58% chance of a hike in December, versus about 52% at yesterday’s close, and 50% at the start of the week. Though the Fed Chair didn’t say anything new in her Q&A, the fact that she didn’t back down from the hawkish spin in the October policy statement, and that she reiterated the transitory nature of the soft trend in inflation added to market beliefs that the FOMC will pull the trigger this time. While the Fed must still monitor incoming data, unless the numbers are unambiguously weak, the FOMC can still tighten policy on the excuse that the figures are in line with their outlooks.

Main Macro Events Today

* US Initial Jobless Claims: Initial claims data for the week of October 31st is out today and should reveal a 257k (median 263k) headline from 260k in the week prior. Claims are continuing to strike a firm path and look poised to leave a month oaverage of 259k in October, down from 269k in September and 275k in August. Alongside the strength in claims we expect a better October employment report with a 190k headline.

* US Productivity: The first release on Q3 productivity should revel a 1.5% (median unchanged) decline following a 3.3% increasein Q2. Unit labor costs should be up 4.0% (median 2.3) after a 1.4% decline in Q2. Output is expected to by up 1.2% which compares to the Q3 GDP figure of 1.5%.

* Canada Ivey PMI: We expect the Ivey PMI to improve to 55.0 in October from 53.7 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Broadly, business sentiment remains under pressure as the economy continues to adjust to the oil sector contraction and global growth uncertainty. The RBC manufacturing PMI (released Monday) fell to 48.0 in October from 48.6 in September. The CFIB Business Barometer survey of small and medium sized business sentiment improved to 58.9 in October from a 56.0 level in September that was the lowest since April of 2009. Yet the CFIB’s index was well below the level seen in October of 2014.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

hfblognews
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hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: November 6, 2015, 14:56
Quote

Date : 6th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 6th November 2015.

271K NEW JOBS INSTEAD OF 190K EXPECTED!

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EURUSD, Daily

US nonfarm payrolls surged 271k in October from a revised 137k in September (was 142k) and 153k in August (was 136k) for a net 12k upward bump. These put the 3-month average at 187k. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.0% from the 5.1% over the prior two months. The labor force rebounded 313k from -350k previously, while household employment climbed 320k from -236k. The participation rate held at 62.4%. Average hourly earnings were up 0.36% from September’s unchanged. The workweek was steady at 34.5. Private payrolls jumped 268k with increases of 27k in the goods producing sector, 31k in construction, with manufacturing unchanged. Employment in the services sector climbed 241k with strength in business services, education, and trade/transport. The government added 3k. Start the countdown.

Surprise strong number send the USD higher against the currencies and Gold while European equity markets reacted higher. EURUSD traded almost down to 1.07 and is at the time of writing reacting a bit higher. This number increased the markets’ belief that the Fed will hike the rates in December. Therefore the previous support at 1.0837 should act as a resistance and we’ll be looking for short signals at the level should the market rally there next week. The nearest support is at 1.0666.

MACRO EVENTS & FOREX NEWS

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FX News Today

The USD has remained firm; ahead of today’s all important NFP data. The data carries make or break potential with regard to the possibilities of the Fed initiating a rate lift-off in December, and with the unemployment rate widely anticipated to dip to a new cycle low of 5.0%, markets are positioned for this eventuality.

The BoE is clearly in no hurry to hike; the GBP hit a new low against the EUR after the BoE left the policy unchanged as widely expected. In addition, the minutes, released at the same time, showed an 8-1 majority in favor of steady policy. The tightening bias was left in place, but the bank did cut its near term forecasts for growth and inflation and clearly is in no hurry to start the first tightening cycle since 2007. In general, central banks seem to be in a holding pattern at the moment, with December being the next focal point. Until then, markets are likely to remain volatile.

German industrial production dropped; the data is much weaker than initially expected, but not a surprise after the slump in manufacturing orders. The number left production down -0.2% q/q in Q3, after a rise of 0.2% q/q in the previous quarter. This is not a good sign for Q3 GDP numbers, due next week. Additionally, the September data highlights that slowing growth in emerging markets, the widening of the emission scandal and now the refugee crisis are all leaving their mark on the German economy. And slowing growth in Germany will put additional pressure on Draghi to implement further easing at the December council meeting.

The AUD was unmoved by the RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy; which was upbeat on the economy, emphasizing re-balancing away from the resources sector. While acknowledging the recent dip in inflation, the central bank noted that it sees inflation rising in the medium term.

Main Macro Events Today

• USD Non-farm Payrolls: October nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as depressed claims readings should provide some tail wind. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the timing of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 5.0% from 5.1% last month. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.5 from September. Hourly earnings are expected to grow 0.2% which would leave a 2.3% y/y rise. Hours worked should be up 0.2% for the month following a 0.2% decline last month. Initial claims averaged 263k in October from 269k in September and 275k in August.

• CAD Unemployment Rate: Employment is expected to rise 10.0k in October after the 12k gains in August and September. Forecast Risk: Canada’s job gains in July and August were the first back to back gains this year, and the further expansion in September suggests some upwards momentum building in the labor market. But this report is volatile, so a modest jobs decline can’t be ruled out in October given the still fragile nature of the economy. Market Risk: An as-expected gain would add to the second half rebound scenario, which is consistent with the Bank’s own view and hence would not alter the outlook for no change in rates for an extended period. Hours worked will be of interest, as the stunning 0.8% surge in August was followed by an 0.8% drop in September. Hours are seen rising 0.5% m/m in October. The unemployment rate is expected at 7.1% in October, matching the 7.1% in September as the highest rates since February of 2014. Average hourly earnings are seen accelerating to a 3.5% y/y pace in October after slowing to 3.0% y/y in September from 3.4% in August. That would remain in-line with a tame compensation cost back-drop and an economy running with spare capacity.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

hfblognews
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Posts: 440
Permalink
hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: November 9, 2015, 12:24
Quote

Date : 9th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 9th November 2015.

EURUSD REACTING HIGHER AFTER FRIDAY’S DROP

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EURUSD, 240 min

After the huge surprise in the US Non-Farm Payrolls numbers on Friday the market participants saw the December rate hike in the US as a done deal. This dropped EURUSD to a 1.0666 – 1.0752 support range and drove the US Dollar Index into a resistance (see Friday’s TCM report). As a result EURUSD has recovered slightly and is at the time of writing up by 0.27% from Friday’s close.

All in all the pair is still in a downward sloping channel with resistance ahead at 1.0833. The upper end of the channel isn’t far away from the resistance while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level coincides with the general area of this resistance. In addition the 30 period SMA happens to be relatively near to the resistance at 1.0872. Based on several technical factors coinciding between 1.0833 and 1.0872 I am looking for short trade signals in this bracket should the price rally to these levels. My target for a short trade is at 1.0755.

USDJPY CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGHER AFTER FRIDAY’S DOLLAR BUYING SPREE

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USDJPY, Daily

The USD strength and strong data out of the U.S. on Friday has seen the USDJPY extended its post U. S. NFP gain, making a 123.60 peak, the highest level seen since Aug. JPY weakness continues, with the currency following its usual inverse correlation with stock markets. Technically, over the medium term (multi-week), I am seeking a USDJPY target near the 125.20 area, and possibly 128.20-50′s in a measured Fibbo Expansion move (116.16 Aug. low – 121.47 Oct. High). Relevant support levels are 123.15 and 122.

THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

Main Macro Events This Week

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be back-loaded this week with retail sales and PPI due to be released on Friday-The-13th and only a handful of minor data updates in a week bisected by the Veteran’s Day break on Wednesday, when bonds and the Fed will be closed but equity markets remain open. It is likely that after Friday’s catch-up payrolls report that the markets will be extra sensitive to any signs of a pick-up in consumption and wage gains this week, though this may not yet be evident. The week kicks off with the Fed’s October LMCI (today), but it’s merely a compilation of already known data. Import and export prices are set to fall 0.3% apiece in October (Tuesday) and -0.3% ex-petro (medians -0.2% and -0.3% respectively. Data resumes after the break with the MBA mortgage market survey (Thursday), initial jobless claims seen declining 7k back down to to 269k. October PPI is set to rise 0.3% vs -0.5% in September (Friday), while the core reading rises only 0.1% vs -0.3%; or -1.1% y/y and 0.5% y/y respectively. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% in October for headline and ex-autos both (medians 0.4%, 0.3%), while business inventories may sink 0.2% (median unchanged) in September and preliminary Michigan sentiment is forecast to tick up to 91.0 in November vs 90.0.

Canada: In Canada, the data calendar is thin this week, with only housing figures due for release. Housing starts (today) are expected to slow to a still strong 220k unit pace in October from the 230.7k rate in September. The acceleration in starts growth during September left the fastest growth rate since the 243.8k clip in April of 2012 and was driven by a 10.5% gain in multi-unit starts to 157.9k units in September. e expect moderation in multi-unit starts to weigh on total starts in October. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to expand 0.2% m/m in September after the 0.3% gain in August.

Europe: German HICP (Thursday) should be confirmed at 0.2% y/y (med same) while French HICP, released for the first time, is seen rising to 0.2% y/y (med same) from 0.1% y/y. Italian and Spanish HICP rates are expected to be confirmed at 0.3% y/y and -0.9% y/y respectively. This should leave the Eurozone aggregate, out the following week at 0.0% y/y. Final inflation numbers aside, the other focus are GDP readings for the third quarter on Friday. Italian GDP growth is seen steady at 0.3% y/y, German GDP growth is expected to slow down slightly to 0.3% q/q from 0.4% q/q in the second quarter and French GDP is seen picking up again after the stagnation in the second quarter and we are looking for a modest rise of 0.2% q/q (median 0.3%). This should leave the overall Eurozone growth number at 0.4% q/q (median same) also unchanged from the second quarter. Eurozone data releases also include September trade numbers out of Germany (today) and for the Eurozone as a whole (Friday). France releases September production numbers on Tursday, followed by the Eurozone aggregate on Thursday.

United Kingdom: The week ahead is highlighted by BRC retail sales report for October (Tuesday), along with the monthly labour market data covering September and October (Wednesday). The data will arrive with BoE tightening expectations having been put in limbo after the central bank trimming both growth and inflation expectations in its November Inflation Report, published last Thursday, and with Governor Carney having elevated China’s impact on inflation. The BRC report is not likely to alter this picture, where we expect a moderation in October after a strong gain in September. We forecast a 0.8% y/y rise in the headline like-for-like measure, down from 2.6% y/y growth in the month prior. The labour market report should show a continued picture of health, with the September ILO unemployment figure seen remaining at the 5.4% cycle low that was achieved in August, and while we see the October claimant count at a new stagnant +1.4k, we anticipate a solid 3.2% y/y gain (median same) in the with-bonus average household earnings figure for the three months to September. Such an outcome would be a reminder that the BoE still remains headed for a tightening, barring any fresh emerging market crisis. This, in turn, would help give Cable a cushion, which was crushed on the final two days of last week as Fed and BoE policy paths diverged.

China: October CPI and PPI (Tuesday) will be of interest. The former is seen at 1.4% y/y from the prior 1.6% outcome. The latter is projected dipping to -6.0% y/y from September’s -5.9% reading. Tuesday also brings October lending indicators. October industrial production (Wednesday) is forecast at 5.6% y/y from 5.7% in September, while October retail sales (Wednesday), are penciled in at 11.0% y/y from 10.9%. October fixed investment dat a is also due during the week, and is expected to fall to 10.1% y/y from the prior 10.3%.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the October employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 20.0k rise in jobs following the 5.1k drop in October. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.2%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is expected to rise 1.0% in September after the 2.9% gain in August, as low rates continue to underpin housing. ANZ job ads are due on Monday, and we expect ads to rise 2.0% in October after the 3.9% gain in September. There is nothing from the RBA this week. The minutes to the November meeting are due next week.

Japan: In Japan, the September current account surplus (Tuesday) is seen bouncing to JPY 2,000 bln, after falling to JPY 1,653.1 bln in August from July’s JPY 1,808.6 bln. September machine orders (Thursday) are forecast rebounding 2.0% m/m, from the prior 5.7% drop. October PPI (Thursday) is seen at -3.4% y/y from -3.9% in September. The September tertiary index (Friday) likely rose 0.2% m/m after edging up 0.1% in August. Revised September industrial production is also due Friday, and is seen unchanged at 1.0% y/y.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

hfblognews
Pro
Posts: 440
Permalink
hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: November 10, 2015, 15:47
Quote

Date : 10th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 10th November 2015.

Image

The USD, over the last 5 trading sessions, has out-preformed its peers as markets adjust to expectations that the U.S. Fed will begin to introduce a gradual rate raising policy, beginning in December. The atmosphere moving forward for the markets is fast shifting from a “will there be a rate hike?” to a “how much of a rate hike is expected?” approach.

The USD traded mostly mixed on Monday. For the most part, it was a risk off session with U.S. markets selling off on Monday in what appears to be a delayed reaction to the increased odds of a December Fed rate hike. This is supported by the strong U.S. jobs report that was released on Friday.

Overnight, FX action gave little direction in currency markets, which were largely unaffected by the biggest drop on Wall Street in six weeks and mostly lower stock markets in Asia, nor by data showing a sub forecast Japanese current account surplus, and a further slowdown in Chinese inflation.

Image

EURUSD, Daily

The surprise increase in the U.S. jobs report, and the fact that the E.U. continues to provide hints that they will increase QE, is supporting the ongoing trend for a shift out of the EUR and into the USD. Since price broke the 1.0810 support now turned resistance, but failed to touch the 1.0660 next relevant support level, this leaves me with the view that price may attempt to trace out a short term measured move higher to create a new lower top below 1.0870 before we see a test of the April 21 low (1.0660). The risk however, with this type of trade set-up, since momentum analysis remains firmly to the downside, is that we cannot rule out any sudden sharp declines if price fails to make any progress towards the 1.0810 area.

FX Pair : EURUSD
Supports: 1.0810/1.0660
Resistances: 1.09/1.11

Image

GBPJPY, Daily

GBPJPY has been in a recovery from 180.60′s lows through last Thursday’s recovery high at 187.68. Upside price potential looks limited in the short term to 188.00, since price remains above the valid upward slopping trend line with buyers emerging to support price after a touch of the 50 SMA. Although stochastic momentum analysis may be slowing, the macro environment does support GBP strength and a weaker JPY since for the foreseeable future the BoE and BoJ have contrasting monetary policies.

FX Pair : GBPJPY
Supports: 183.88
Resistances: 188.00

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS

Image

FX News Today

China CPI slipped to a 1.3% y/y pace in October, from 1.6% y/y in September, modestly slower than forecast. The inflation index is down from 2.0% y/y in August. Excluding food and energy, CPI fell to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.6% in September and 1.7% in June, July, and August. For the month, October CPI fell 0.3% from 0.1% in September. October PPI was unchanged at a -5.9% y/y rate for a third straight month, and has eroded from -4.6% y/y in the spring. The index has been in negative territory for an unprecedented 44 consecutive months. The weakening trend in inflationary pressures, along with the declines in trade, have increased hope and speculation of additional stimulus. Chinese shares are lower after 5 days of gains.

Boston Fed dove Rosengren: it could be appropriate to hike in December if the economy continues its gradual improvement, while there’s been real improvement in the economy since the October meeting. In particular, the October jobs report was very good news including the reduction of labor slack and it’s reasonable to ask whether current stimulus is still necessary as the worst of the Fed’s September global outlook and market concerns haven’t materialized. He sees a gradual rate hike cycle as needed to “probe” labor markets, while assessing the Fed’s new tools and analyzing their effects. He believes that domestic demand will help offset dollar strength and sees above-potential growth ahead. Coming from one of the more dovish Fed members, this suggests few impediments remain for a December hike.

OECD trimmed its global growth outlook again in its twice annual review amid concerns over weakness in emerging markets (especially citing recessions in Brazil and Russia, and the slowdown in China). The organization now pegs world growth at 2.9% for 215 and 3.3% for 2016, versus prior forecasts of 3.0% and 3.6%, respectively, from September. However, the U.S. expansion remains on track with a 2.4% GDP growth rate for this year, accelerating to 2.5% in 2016, and dipping back to 2.4% in 2017. The Euro-area is expected to grow at a 1.8% clip next year and 1.9% in the following year, with Japan seen at 1.0% in 2016, but slowing to half that in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

US Wholesale Trade: September wholesale trade data is out today and should reveal a -0.3% (median -0.2%) headline for the month with the accompanying inventory component remaining unchanged. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio steady from 1.31 in August. Other measuers of inventories were softer in September and we saw factory goods inventories down 0.4% with shipments down 0.4% as well and orders down 1.0% for the month.

US Import and Export Prices: October trade price data is expected to show import prices down 0.1% (median -0.1%) with export prices down 0.2%. Apart from gains during May and June around the rebound in oil prices both the import and export price indexes have posted negative readings for the past year. Despite some slight rebound in oil prices in October prices still remained at depressed levels which will likely continue to weigh on the release.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
&
John Knobel
Senior Currency Strategist
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

hfblognews
Pro
Posts: 440
Permalink
hfblognews
Post Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
on: November 11, 2015, 14:40
Quote

Date : 11th November 2015.

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 11th November 2015.

WEAK UK WAGE DATA WEIGHING ON GBP

Image

GBPUSD, 240 min

UK unemployment unexpectedly dropped to a new cycle low of 5.3% in September data, down from 5.4% in August and July’s 5.5%. The consensus had been for an unchanged 5.4% reading. This takes the jobless rate further south of the BoE’s NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) threshold of 5.5%. The employment rate, meanwhile, rose to 73.7% the highest since records began in 1971.

Despite this, wage data disappointed: the ex-bonus average household pay packet rose 2.5% y/y in the three months to September, down from the 2.8% increase of August, while the with-bonus figure rose 3.0% y/y, unchanged from August and shy of the median forecast for 3.2%. The weaker wage data has been the main takeaway for markets, with sterling trading weaker in the wake of the release, though with inflation fractionally negative, incomes continue to trend firmly upwards in real terms. The October claimant count has been somewhat overshadowed on this occasion, coming in with a rise of 3.3k, slightly worse than the 1.4k median forecast. The claimant count rate remained unchanged at 2.3%.

GBPUSD is trading just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level after it reacted lower from the proximity of 1.5197 resistance level. It is trading near the upper 4h Bollinger Bands while the 30 period SMA and a consolidation from yesterday appears to give some support. Even though the market turned lower before hitting my intended shorting level I am still looking for short signals at or near 1.1597 resistance (coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci level) with an aim to cover the trade near 1.5060 level.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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