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Author Topic: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
ValdisTF
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ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 17, 2015, 13:57
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to compensate some of the lost positions – the dollar basket index (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.43. The US dollar found the support due to the stronger-than-expected US inflation report which showed a decrease to 255K against the previous 262K.

The pair EUR/USD finished the trades with a decline. The ECB representative Ewald Nowotny said that the ECB did not reach the inflation target. The regulator requires a new set of instruments. The euro zone released the September consumer price index and declared about the August trade balance changes, which turned out to be lower then expected – 11.2B against forecasted 20B. During the day, the pair was in a flat.

The pair GBP/USD had strengthened amid the EUR/GBP quotations reduction by the end of the day.

The pair USD/JPY finished the trades with a growth amid the US and Japanese government bond yields. According to the preliminary data the US Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index was higher than expected and amounted to 92.1 against forecasted 89.0. The NAHB October housing market index was published alongside with the vacancies level and the August labor turnover.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the debt market began to form a reversal pattern for the German and the US Treasuries 10-year bond yields. This trend continuation will increase a demand for the US assets. We cannot ignore the "investors’ risk appetite" growth. The traders’ attention is directed the US industrial production and consumer confidence publications.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. That is possible “Dead Cross” formation. The pair keeps growing until it is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price started its correction, still it intends to grow. If the growth is continued the EUR/USD will reach the level of 1.1530 soon. The decrease target is at the level of 1.1325.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

Yesterday the US and the UK government bond yields increased in the debt market. Moreover, the US crude oil inventories publication supported the US currency. The traders’ attention is focused on the US industrial production report.

The pound continued its upward movement, beforehand it had corrected to the level of 1.5421.

The first support is at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the second one is at 1.5550. The pound upward trend is stopped; the pair began a consolidation phase.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stooped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 the growth will be continued. Otherwise it can return below the level of 1.5390.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US and the Japanese moderate bond yields increased in the credit market which increases the US assets investments’ attractiveness. The Nasdaq high-tech index was the growth leader in the US stock market that indicates the interest growth for the risky assets. That is traditionally a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Meanwhile, investors are studying the US September industrial production release.

The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.  

There is a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud now and the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen is directed downwards. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the course remains unchanged we will see the pair at the level of 118.40. Otherwise it will return above the 120.40.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar strengthened positions after the US Labor Department reported that the number of initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 255,000 from 262,000 the previous week. The US Commerce Department reported that the consumer prices fell by 0.2% last month that is in line with the expectations. Investors drew attention to the US industrial production report and to the consumer sentiment that is in search for economic recovery additional signs.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9420, the next one is 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The first target is the level of 0.9420, the second one is 0.9370.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisTF
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Posts: 454
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ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 19, 2015, 20:54
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The China GDP better-than-expected data decreased fears related to the fact that the Chinese economy may experience a hard decrease and pull the world economy down. Investors paid more attention to the GDP macroeconomic indicator and the European stock market trading wave started on the positive note as the US dollar is supported against the euro.

The market is awaiting whether the ECB begins to extend the existing measures in September to support the economy. The bears dominated at the market yesterday, the pair EUR/USD was decreasing the whole day.

The British economy positive development still allows "bulls" to keep the currency in the area of the earlier reached highs.

The Chinese positive news supports the US bond yields, which markedly fell last month amid the sharp expectations reduction, concerning the US rate hike. However, the yen is trading without any changes. The USD/JPY is in a flat now.

Relative to the US dollar, the Australian dollar is growing due to the quotations growth after the Chinese Statistics publication.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro positions look vulnerable amid the ECB upcoming meeting. The Governing Council member Benoit Ker said that the regulator was not going to solve any other issue besides the mentioned earlier. Meanwhile expectations regarding the quantitative easing program correction are increasing. The last Bloomberg survey showed that the number of respondents who expect the stimulating measures package to be to expanded, increased from 68% to 81%.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.  

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The correction is in progress. If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. We believe the pair is under pressure till the ECB meeting.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound gained strong impulse last week after the UK labor market report which showed that the unemployment rate had fallen to the seven years minimum. The technical analysis gives a neutral forecast, still the bullish scenario is the preferred one. The UK Thursday retail sales report is in focus now. The report is expected to show a growth since August.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair stopped its growth. If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. Otherwise, it can return below the level of 1.5390.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US dollar is declining against the yen after a consolidation at the end of the previous two sessions. The dollar is waiting for the further consolidation period and can begin to rebuild its positions. The pair is still in the range and its movements to the lower bound are used as an opportunity to enter the market. However, bulls still face the lack of strong growth drivers: the Japanese investors’ activity continued to support the pair, but the yield spreads dynamics does not give cause for optimism.

The USD/JPY started an upward corrective movement. The price managed to break the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.  

There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and the Chinkou Span now. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. The USD/JPY will keep falling until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair grows it will grow to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisTF
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Posts: 454
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ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 20, 2015, 20:29
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting. After the ECB meeting, the investors will wait for the Fed meeting results which will be held on October 27-28. The Fed officials give contradictory comments: some of them speak about the need to raise the interest rates this year, some of them want to change the rate when the USA economy is more stable and strong.

At the beginning of the week the pound was able to increase slightly amid the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’ speech supported the pound. McCafferty said that the rake hike was necessary and the hike would be gradual.

The pair USD/JPY is showing symbolic growth amid the moderate demand for the "risky assets" which put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. Also, investors’ attention is paid to the US API crude oil and the number of building permits publication.

The Australian Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Council last meeting (October 6) minutes noted that there was a correct decision to leave the rates unchanged at the October meeting. The Australian dollar decline supports the system balance change in favor of escape from the extractive economic nature.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The greenback continued to pressure its main competitors first half of the week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 94.97. The US dollar is supported by the US API crude oil reserves and the building permits number. The single European currency is still under pressure in the run-up to the ECB meeting.

The pair is showing a downward correction. The decrease was stopped at the level of 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the level of 1.1410, the next one is at the level of 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. We have a “Dead Cross” signal.  

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps falling we expect the level of 1.1260 to be reach soon. Shall the EUR/USD return to the growth it will go to the level 1.1410.

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Pound

General overview

The pound supports the UK government bond yields growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The Bank of England governor’s speech affected the pair. The GBP/USD grew to 1.55 after his speech. McCafferty confirmed his plans to change the rate. According to McCafferty the lending companies term have been improved.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The pair will keep its growth until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The JPY market short positions are still at the low level despite the fact that the expectations concerning the Bank of Japan monetary policy easing increased compared with the previous month.

Technical indicators are neutral and point to the side dynamics continuation. The pair is between two levels: 119.20 and 120.40.
The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40a. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak buy signal as the price has just left the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.  

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisTF
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Posts: 454
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ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 21, 2015, 21:42
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs continued to consolidate in the narrow ranges amid the lack of relevant data. The market completely ignored the published economic statistics. The euro zone improved lending conditions news was an exception which led to the short-term pressure on the US dollar. Apparently, traders are waiting for the new guidelines and they determined to wait when the ECB will announce its monetary policy decisions.

Investors liked the ECB lending survey results which showed that the quantitative easing program bears its fruits, improving the credit conditions. It could set up to the concerns decrease that the ECB would expand the bond purchase program. However, the euro interest has been short-lived and the euro was almost back to their original positions by the end of the day.

There were "cable" short-term purchases amid the Bank of England J. McCafferty harsh comments who said that the bank should start the interest rates rising now to get the interest rate gradual and steady growth. However, this rhetoric has supported the British currency for a short time. The pound showed a lateral movement.

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar. Obviously, the mood, connected with another monetary easing at the next BoJ meeting and the US interest rates increase is the main topic for the yen traders. The agencies polls show that the traders’ percentage who believe in incentives volume growing has been increasing. The pair stopped in the middle of the trading day then the price changed the direction to the downward one.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has completely leveled the previous growth success against the dollar. The ECB representative Linde said that if necessary the ECB could expand the quantitative easing program. According to him, they are not in a hurry to hike the rate as the euro area inflation raises some concerns.

The pair EUR/USD continues to trade in the range, limited by the resistance near 1.1410 and the support near 1.1325.

The first support is at the level of 1.1325, the second one is at the level of 1.1260. The resistance is at the levels of 1.1410 and 1.1530.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud now and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen upwards; the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. We have a “Golden Cross” signal.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We wait for the ECB meeting results that may give us the clue regarding the ECB further plans. We still two ways the price to go: the level of 1.1325 if the EUR/USD decreases and the level of 1.1410 if it grows.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound has remained stable, although it is still under pressure. The Bank of England representative McCafferty said that the interest gradual increase can justify the monetary policy tightening in the short term. The Bank of England needs to avoid deviation from the course when making interest rates decisions; there is a risk that the inflation will be above the target level in 2017.

The first support is at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The resistance is at the level of 1.5550, the second one is at 1.5670. The pair is in a flat right now between 1.5420- 1.5520.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal; the price is above the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Dead Cross”. The pair will keep growing until it stays above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level 1.5460 and consolidates above it the growth will be continued. The growth target is the level of 1.5550. Shall the pair return below the level it will go to 1.5390.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating its achievements in anticipation of the Fed representatives’ speeches. However, the current statistics do not support the dollar. Now traders expect the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen evening speech, hoping to hear hints about the interest rates increase. Traders hope the rate hike will be this year.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is 118.40. The resistance is at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a weak buy signal, the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.  

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 120.40. If it falls it will decrease to 119.20.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisTF
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Posts: 454
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ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 22, 2015, 21:11
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market approached the main day of the week with an activity absence. There was a sluggish trade before the ECB meeting. Investors were waiting for the new guidelines and stayed away from the large-scale transactions.

Mario Draghi hinted that the Bank was ready to take additional measures to stimulate the economy to increase the inflation in the euro area.

Draghi said the economic recovery and inflation were likely to be under pressure due to slow economic growth in emerging markets. The euro lost 1.8% when Draghi signaled that the ECB could announce the additional measures easing monetary policy launch until the end of the year. The ECB left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as it was expected.

The EUR/USD remained in the narrow range before the meeting results announcement and sharply fell on the news.  

Lack of support from the economic data and increased uncertainty, connected with the Central Bank leading economies monetary policy prospects continued to affect the pair GBP/USD activity. The pound was in the side range the whole day, but closed the session with the a little heavy losses against the US dollar compared to the other majors. The UK economic data have shown that the public sector net borrowings have been the lowest for the last eight years, 8.6 billion pounds against the previous 10.8 billion pounds when it was expected to see 9.1 billion pounds which can signal about the possible government plans to reduce the budget deficit.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell by 1.8% when Draghi said that the ECB could launch the easing monetary policy this year. The ECB on Thursday left. The ECB did not change the interest rates, as we expected.

The pair lost about 200 pp during yesterday’s European session. The pair fell from 1.1330 to 1.1130 where it finished the day.

The first support is at the level of 1.1050, the second one is at the level of 1.0925. The resistance is at the levels of 1.1150 and 1.1260.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price broke the Ichimoku Cloud through having stopped deep below it. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is likely to go to the support of 1.1050 soon. After a sharp decline we expect a short-term bounce up to 1.1150.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound fell against the US dollar after the Bank of England meeting minutes publication which pointed to the soft policy tendency.

McCafferty and Will, who support the interest rates increase, said that the UK economic situation justifies proposed decisions. In their view, the CPI index below the target level is due to the currency course growth and the commodity prices decrease.

The first support is at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The resistance is at the level of 1.5460, the second one is at 1.5550. The pair is still in a flat.

We have a weak buy signal; the price is in the Cloud. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. We have not confirmed “Dead Cross” signal.  

The MACD is in a neutral territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair entered the Cloud that might be a bearish signal. If the pair goes through the Cloud and consolidates below of it we could get the sell movement. The levels 1.5390 and 1.5300 our first targets

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

We expect the "bullish" sentiment predominance for two reasons. The first one is the demand for the "risky assets" that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The second reason is the commodity market sales that will support the dollar as the commodity cost is denominated in the US currency. The news from Europe supported the dollar was well. The ECB left the rates unchanged. The Bank may enlarge the stimulating measured this year.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give us a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. We do not believe that the pair could return to a decrease soon though we do not exclude some short-term bounces down.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisTF
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Posts: 454
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ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 24, 2015, 13:56
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar has sharply grown against all its major opponents last week. The reason for the growth activity was the ECB meeting where they decided the Eurozone monetary policy prospects. The European Central Bank did not change the monetary parameters, however, the governor M. Draghi's "dovish" tone supported the US dollar not only against the euro, but also against other majors. The Chinese central bank cut its interest rates to 4.35% which is primarily affected the oil market.

Draghi signaled about his readiness to expand the incentive programs and hinted that this decision may be taken this December. The euro fell after his words against the dollar and other reserve currencies

The British pound also fell against the dollar amid the ECB news, still it suffered fewer losses than its main currency colleagues. Obviously, the pound relative stability was due the fact that even before the European Bank recent reports the UK economic data marked the September retail trade very impressive results. The UK retail sales rose up by 1.9% m/m compared to the previous month, but in annual terms it rose up by 6.5% y/y which was much better than the forecast, it was expected 0.3% m/m and + 4.8% y/y after -0.4% m/m, 3.5% y/y in August.

The Bank of Japan further monetary policy easing continues to put pressure on the yen. The October manufacturing sector business activity index preliminary data was published, the result turned out to be much stronger than the forecasts 52.5 after 51.0 while it was expected to see 50.6. Still this indicator did not have significant impact on the market.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Despite the October business activity strong data, the euro remains under pressure. The ECB President gave a clear signal to the market about the high probability of easing program expansion in December. The chief banker’s speech at the press conference made the euro decline by 200 points against the dollar.

There is an assumption that the euro zone main bank can begin to solve their problems not only with the help of quantitative easing, but also using other instruments such as the deposits interest rates increase, the other asset purchases or even intervention in the foreign exchange market.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925. The resistance is at the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price broke the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The target the price to go now is the level of 1.0925. The EUR/USD is undervalued and we believe the pair shall bounce upwards now.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair GBP/USD continued its decrease after the ECB President Draghi hinted that the central bank was considering the possibility of taking new economic growth and inflation stimulating measures. The retail sales report supported the pound still the pair was unable to overcome the level of 1.5500 as the market again increased expectations of a rate hike at the Fed pen half 2016. The pound touched new daily lows near 1.5350. The dollar keeps growing that increased the pair's correction.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen directed downwards and forms “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be continued until the pair is below the Ichimoku Cloud.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the downward movement is continued the price will decrease to 1.5300. We do not exclude some correction upwards. Shall the pair grow the level of 1.5390 will be the first our goal.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar last Thursday. The Mario Draghi statements had an impact on this pair, the ECB further stimulating prospects have improved the risk appetite. The pair is likely to continue bullish movement still the strong technical resistance levels which the pair has reached can stop its growth for a while.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give us a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60.

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Franc (CHF)

General overview

The euro fell after the ECB President Mario Draghi's statement. Draghi's rhetoric was perceived by traders as a signal of the inevitable new measures to liberalize the monetary policy in the short term. Draghi's words sharply pressured the single currency and supported the dollar as the markets believe that the Federal Reserve may raise the interest rates in December if the economy and the market would be as well as projected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD is in a positive territory above its signal line. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The first target is 0.9850. The pair may correct to the level of 0.9750 and 0.9650.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisTF
Pro
Posts: 454
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ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 26, 2015, 20:47
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro is recovering after the Friday's decrease. The European stock markets decrease supports the single currency, which, however, is of corrective nature. In general, the euro is under pressure amid the weak IFO survey. The pair EUR/USD is trying to recover after the last week decrease, the decrease was triggered by the Draghi's statement.

The pair GBP/USD is trading in the quite narrow range near the important support. The October British Industry Confederation report can become a catalyst for a further movement. The report was expected with decline -8, but in fact, it turned out -18.

The yen increased, having corrected its losses against the dollar. The Bank of Japan representative Hamada said that as long as the Fed rate hike expectations put pressure on the yen, the Bank of Japan did not need the further monetary policy easing.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Germany IFO institute business climate data were published yesterday. Traders expected business climate index to be 107,8 in fact it was 108.2. This indicator is closely correlating with the economic growth pace and is always closely monitored by traders. The industrial sector slight slowdown is offset by the service sector growth. Population revenues are noticeably increasing, the unemployment and mortgage rates are decreasing. These are ideal conditions for the construction sector. The September secondary housing market sales rose up by 5.7% compared with August.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The resistance levels are 1.1150 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair rebounded from the Friday’s low yesterday. The EUR/USD reached the first resistance at the level 1.1050. If the pair keeps growing it will fly straight to the resistance – 1.1150. Shall the pair fall the target will be the level 1.0925.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the lateral trend amid the mixed news background. The UK 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Traders expected the support from the primary residence sales, still the index came out lower than expected - 468,000 against the forecasted 550,000.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a weak sell signal; the price is in the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards; the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the downward movement is continued the price will decrease to 1.5300. In case of a growth the level of 1.5390 will be the first target.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

Bullish sentiments prevailed during the trading day. There was the "risk appetite" growth after the Mario Draghi’s statement that the ECB was willing to increase the incentive package at the next meeting in December. Such verbal intervention provoked the quotations growth on the Asian, European and North American stock exchanges. The carry trade operations increase is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency. The commodity market sales also contribute to the dollar strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is crossing the Kijun-sen upwards. Two lines give us a “Golden Cross” signal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 120.40.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisTF
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ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 27, 2015, 22:14
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD decreased by 0.3% amid the short positions profit taking. The pair GBP/USD finished the trades with the quotations decrease by 0.35% amid the September US new home sales negative release. The pair USD/JPY decreased by 0.35% by the end of the day amid the carry trade closure which caused the demand for the yen as a funding currency.

The morning course of the trades was determined by the debt and equity markets dynamics. Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their US and the UK counterparts, which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement, however, demand for the "risky assets" is still preserved.

The main event of the day was the third quarter UK GDP release report. There was the third quarter service sector growth rate slowdown, this sector is the basis of the UK economy. According to the Markit Economics PMI data, the manufacturing sector also showed a decrease compared to the previous quarter. The negative factor is the state budget gradual reduction, which reduces the multiplier effect in the economy.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the credit markets German 10-year government bond yields rose up relative to their UA and the UK counterparts which is a positive factor for the single European currency. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate correction movement. The US statistics was in the focus yesterday. The durable goods orders pleased traders with the positive data. The labor market upward trend contributes to the household spending increase. The September car sales increased in the domestic market

The pair euro/dollar tends to decrease. The attempts to form a low bottom are expected.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps growing it will reach the resistance – 1.1050, the second growth target is the level of 1.1150. Shall the pair fall the target will be the level 1.0925.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The third quarter UK GDP release was the main event of the day. The trade deficit increase amid the British currency revaluation against the euro is traditionally a negative factor for an economy growth. However, that is not so bad for the UK economy. The unemployment level reduction and the average earnings growth, taking into account premiums make the household spending increase which eventually moderates out the mentioned above negative factors.

The pair tends to decline. The pair failed to break through the key resistance of 1.5390 and it is under pressure now.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks the level of 1.5300, the downward movement will be continued to 1.5200. In case of a growth the level of 1.5390 will be our first target.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

This week traders’ attention will be focused on the Fed meeting where the US interest rates decision will be made. The Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for October 30 where the regulator will also decide on the country interest rate. Currently, the Japan economy is showing very weak recovery signs and the country inflation rate remains far below the target of 2.0%. If the Fed refrains from the interest rates raising, it could prompt the Bank of Japan to the monetary policy further easing.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisTF
Pro
Posts: 454
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ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 28, 2015, 22:11
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

During the day the euro rate was demonstrating a positive trend against the most world currencies after its decline the day before. Traders were expecting the US Federal Reserve decision about the monetary policy.

The Fed meeting was held on October 27-28. Analysts were sure that the regulator would keep the base rate at its lowest level and would delay the monetary policy tightening till 2016. Their assumptions were correct as the Fed did not change the rates. The FED meeting supported the dollar. Regulator hinted that the next rate hike might happen this December

In the context of some uncertainty investors prefer safer assets. In addition, investors continue to win back the US controversial statistics. Thus, the country durable goods orders volume decreased by 1.2% in September compared to August while analysts expected a decrease by 1.5%.

The Conference Board analytical company said in its turn that the US consumer confidence index fell to 97.6 points in October from the revised September figure of 102.6 points. Analysts predicted the index to be at the initial level of 103 points in September.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Federal Open Market Committee statement (FOMC Statement) was expected with moderately aggressive tone, despite the weak economic reports for the last two weeks. The German GfK consumer confidence index was expected to decrease from 9.6 to 9.5 in September. Traders expected the September imports prices at 0.2% after 1.5% in August.

The Fed left the rates unchanged. Still the regulator may change the rate this December. The rate change will depend on the November meeting results.  

The short-term correction from the support level of 1.1050 turned downwards. Sellers broke the level and fell further.

The first support is at the level of 1.0870, the next one is at 1.0830. The resistance levels are 1.0925 and 1.1050.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair grows it will reach the resistance – 1.0925. Still we do not believe in a growth right now. We presume that the pair will keep falling after yesterday’s Fed meeting. The targets are 1.0870 and 1.0830.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

The 3rd quarter UK GDP was only 0.5% against the quite weak forecast of 0.6% and a growth by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. The US durable goods orders volume (Durable Goods Orders) decreased by 1.2% in September against the forecast of -1.1% and -2.3% in August, according to the basic indicator (except transport components), the reduction was 0, 4% against the neutral forecast of 0.0%.

The upward trend which began at the support level of 1.5100 showed reversal signals. The support level of 1.5325 and the rising channel lower bound of 1.5320 breakthrough were among these signals.

The first support is at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The resistance is at the level of 1.5300, the second one is at 1.5390.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair sharply fell at yesterday American session. The pair may return to the resistance 1.5300 for a while still we support the idea that the decrease will be continued. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The expected lateral trend resulted in a rather strong decline at the technical level of 120.40 due to worse-than-expected US September new home sales and the durable goods orders volume data. The stock market declined on Monday and Tuesday and as a result the market got the yen decrease by 82 points yesterday. The Bank of Japan intends to leave the current monetary policy unchanged. The Central Bank will make up a decision on this issue on the Friday meeting. Still the reason of yesterday’s pair growth was the FED decision that supported the greenback.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is 119.20. The resistance is at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards, the Kijun-sen is directed upwards, both lines are forming a “Golden Cross”. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.

Image

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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ValdisTF
Pro
Posts: 454
Permalink
ValdisTF
Post Re: "Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis
on: October 29, 2015, 21:26
Quote

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.10.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve meeting has been already held and it's time to sum up results. The monetary authorities kept interest rates unchanged and pointed out to the December rate hike possibility. It should be noted that the FED has been promising to change the policy since June so it was not obviously a new event for financial markets.

Our attention was drawn to the UK September mortgage lending publication. The labor market positive dynamics (the unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth) with the mortgages interest rates decline point out to the positive data output. Against this background, the British currency gained short-term support.

During the day, the "bullish" sentiment dominated within the pair USD/JPY for two reasons. Firstly, the Asian trading session industrial production data were published that put pressure on the Japanese currency. Secondly, the PMI production sector decline with the factory orders decrease did not allow investors to count on the strong data output.

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Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The FOMC again pointed out to the weak export, the number of new jobs decline and the low inflationary expectations. However, the US currency showed a powerful growth the previous day. Traders again continued to win back the divergence after a pause, waiting for the Federal Reserve and the ECB central banks actions.

The first support is at the level of 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0870. The resistance levels are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

We have a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The pair is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is crossing Kijun-sen downwards; two lines are forming the “Dead Cross”. The pair will show the southern movement until it is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance – 1.1050 is our first growth target. We expect the pair to keep falling. The targets are 1.0925 and 1.0870.

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Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the Ministry of Energy the US crude oil stocks again increased which may put pressure on the basic reference varieties price. The USA did not please traders with the last quarter positive GDP release. The index was expected to reach 1.6%, but in fact it turned out to be worse than expected having amounted less than 1.5%. The Great Britain, on the other hand, upset traders with weak data regarding the same indicator.

The first support is at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The resistance is at the level of 1.5390, the second one is at 1.5460.

We have a strong sell signal; the price is below the Cloud now. The pair is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The downward movement will be continued until the pair does not break the Ichimoku Cloud upwards.

The MACD is below its signal line in the negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Though the pair returned to the resistance 1.5300 we do not believe it will grow much higher. We support the sell idea. Our primary targets are 1.5200 and 1.5100.

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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Apple company positive report with the FOMC "pigeon rhetoric" supported the US stock market and today we may expect the upward trend continuation. Demand for the "risky assets" will put pressure on the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is 120.40. The resistance is at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a strong and confirmed buy signal; the pair is above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. If the USD/JPY remains above the Cloud the growth will be continued.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory now. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair stays above the Cloud it has all chances to go to the level of 121.60. As an alternative scenario we will see a decrease to 119.20 and further to 118.40.

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*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

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