Fundamental Analysis, Fundamental Analysis Forex
September 29, 2012 @ 8:08 pm

Euro Shorts Decrease Again, Pound Longs Increase by 88% – COT Report

Data from CFTC’s latest Commitments of Traders report shows that speculators again reduced their bets on a Euro decline versus the dollar, even as the EUR/USD pair lost some ground. Last week traders had -50,238 contracts net short on the single currency, a fall from the previous week’s -73,482 number. From the date of the last COT report on September 18 to this week’s last day for which data is collected, Tuesday September 25, the EUR/USD fell 150 pips.

Australian dollar net longs increased from last week’s +69,246 contracts to 89,562 contracts. This happened despite the Aussie losing 67 pips versus the dollar in that period. New Zealand longs increased from last week’s +16,605 contracts to +19,965 contracts net long. The NZD/USD lost 55 pips in that Tuesday to Tuesday time frame.

After recording big percentage increases the past few weeks, the Canadian dollar longs have finally taken a breather. Last week net longs betting on gains in the CAD versus the dollar fell from +111,881 contracts to +105,346 contracts. Historically this is still a very high net position for the Canadian Dollar,its important to note that this week’s 105k and last week’s 111k are the biggest net long positions in the CAD in the past 4 years. The USD/CAD gained 64 pips in the period between the 2 COTs.

Japanese yen longs increased by 6K last week, going from +15,476 contracts net long, to +21,111 contracts. USD/JPY lost 101 pips in that time period. Swiss Frank shorts decreased further, going from -4,527 contracts to only -904 contracts net short. USD/CHF gained 91 pips in that weekly period.

Finally we close off with the British Pound which had the biggest percentage increase last week. The Sterling net longs increased from last week’s +14,412 contracts to this week’s +27,137 contracts net long, an increase of a massive 88%. The GBP/USD lost 58 pips in the period between the last 2 COT reports. This is the biggest net long position in the Pound since May of 2011. To keep things in perspective though, the Pound had a lot bigger net short position back in September of last year, the net short contracts reached a high of -64,010 contracts back then.

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About Fx_Livermore

Fx_Livermore has over seven years experience in forex trading. He uses a mix of technical and fundamental analysis in his trading. His posts should not be taken as trading advice/recommendation to buy/sell any currency/security.

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One Response to “Euro Shorts Decrease Again, Pound Longs Increase by 88% – COT Report

  1. Daniel Says:

    He made the exact same money he would have made if he just skipped the ofsntetifg positions and put on the short position when he closed the long one, didn’t he? Someone explain to me why this isn’t just plain silly. Is the point to get in when the spread is low? But you wind up opening and closing two positions rather than one. I don’t get it.

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